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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 36 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
50%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 26 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
46%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 22 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
34%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 28 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 23 games
30%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 454 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 569 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
322 picks · 148 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
287 picks · 593 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
278 picks · 511 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
271 picks · 151 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
269 picks · 565 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
269 picks · 494 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:3
AVULUS 67%One Move 33%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
52% · 103 games43% · 153 games
SvenEyesight
Sven
Sand King
Sand KingMo13ei
55% · 187 games42% · 78 games
Medusazvёzd
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
51% · 131 game49% · 327 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroFly
47% · 319 games55% · 103 games
Keeper of the Lightnot me
Keeper of the Light
Slark
SlarkdEsire
63% · 60 games45% · 139 games
SilencerBb3px
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct32:15
AVULUS 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySmiling Knight
50% · 391 game44% · 289 games
TerrorbladeEyesight
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckMo13ei
54% · 172 games47% · 84 games
Slarkzvёzd
Slark
Sand King
Sand KingXibbe
55% · 225 games55% · 373 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroFly
49% · 372 games48% · 275 games
Windrangernot me
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
49% · 73 games49% · 212 games
RingmasterBb3px
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 81%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2