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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 16 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 13 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 13 games
54%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 39 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 27 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 25 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
738 picks · 314 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 591 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
590 picks · 293 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
579 picks · 742 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 336 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
539 picks · 509 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
514 picks · 604 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
501 picks · 738 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:26
AVULUS 44%Pipsqueak+4 56%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
46% · 285 games51% · 105 games
JuggernautNande
Juggernaut
Mars
MarsCloud
49% · 298 games53% · 498 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinydualrazee
50% · 336 games49% · 152 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
57% · 179 games49% · 331 game
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskWein
46% · 400 games49% · 412 games
Snapfireaik
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct37:39
AVULUS 44%Pipsqueak+4 56%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 47:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerssnovv1
48% · 255 games49% · 285 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCloud
53% · 210 games53% · 239 games
Nature's ProphetNande
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritdualrazee
47% · 46 games40% · 132 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWein
52% · 312 games51% · 253 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
53% · 482 games51% · 396 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 59%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2