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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 25 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 24 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 19 games
37%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 16 games
44%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 43 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 37 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 37 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 33 games
45%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 31 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
490 picks · 255 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
468 picks · 460 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 963 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 147 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
293 picks · 484 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 492 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 619 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:19
AVULUS 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
49% · 164 games57% · 181 game
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Puck
PuckLorenof
47% · 259 games52% · 313 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
46% · 213 games55% · 64 games
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Faceless Void
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
51% · 159 games47% · 223 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
49% · 193 games49% · 207 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct18:35
AVULUS 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLorenof
54% · 370 games52% · 219 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Marci
MarciSmiling Knight
46% · 188 games55% · 61 game
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
41% · 15 games49% · 328 games
BatriderAlberkaaa
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowThiolicor
44% · 331 game51% · 228 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Oracle
OraclePuppey
55% · 93 games48% · 161 game
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct18:38
AVULUS 47%Runa Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
47% · 345 games49% · 121 game
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
57% · 123 games42% · 142 games
MarciAlberkaaa
Marci
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
44% · 397 games52% · 359 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
51% · 193 games46% · 360 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterThiolicor
53% · 96 games59% · 172 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 51%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3