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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Shpilitwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 27 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 23 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 16 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
31%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 15 games
33%

Team Shpilit

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Solo · 5 games
20%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zarich · 5 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
zuyzyan · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
67%
Marci
Marci
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Solo · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
599 picks · 811 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 552 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 396 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 296 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1024 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 664 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 588 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 516 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
AVULUS 62%Team Shpilit 38%
The model gave 62% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Shpilit in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaDarkLord^
38% · 79 games59% · 284 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
41% · 182 games57% · 156 games
RazorZarich
Razor
Mars
MarsPalantimos
41% · 382 games66% · 394 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
44% · 215 games52% · 523 games
WarlockSolo
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
47% · 586 games54% · 87 games
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct54:31
AVULUS 65%Team Shpilit 35%
The model gave 65% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
46% · 300 games50% · 454 games
BeastmasterAinkrad
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
48% · 217 games47% · 115 games
Kezzuyzyan
Kez
Underlord
UnderlordPalantimos
51% · 160 games50% · 183 games
Dark SeerZarich
Dark Seer
Windranger
WindrangerDarkLord^
46% · 302 games54% · 458 games
RingmasterSolo
Ringmaster
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
52% · 352 games57% · 121 game
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed
AVULUS 77%Team Shpilit 23%
The model gave 77% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Team Shpilit.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 77%
Series resultTeam Shpilit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3