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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 33 games
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
40%

Team Spirit

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 34 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 27 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
74%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
rue · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
553 picks · 580 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
382 picks · 224 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 422 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 334 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 494 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 859 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
319 picks · 682 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
308 picks · 868 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 74%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:40
AVULUS 23%Team Spirit 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
49% · 227 games63% · 36 games
LycanYatoro
Lycan
Marci
MarciXibbe
46% · 164 games44% · 144 games
KunkkaMirele
Kunkka
Pudge
PudgeWorick
43% · 13 games60% · 136 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
54% · 112 games48% · 285 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
45% · 336 games51% · 251 game
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct23:40
AVULUS 22%Team Spirit 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
42% · 203 games53% · 211 games
Shadow FiendYatoro
Shadow Fiend
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
47% · 187 games53% · 82 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
47% · 155 games51% · 396 games
PangolierCollapse
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskdEsire
43% · 282 games59% · 117 games
Banerue
Bane
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
47% · 91 game59% · 112 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2