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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Türkiyeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 36 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 34 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 33 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 23 games
70%

Team Türkiye

Lich
Lich
Stoic · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 7 games
71%
Invoker
Invokersignature
G.T.I · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
427 picks · 348 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 538 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 190 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
358 picks · 449 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 579 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 540 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
334 picks · 360 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:20
AVULUS 80%Team Türkiye 20%
The model gave 80% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
47% · 117 games48% · 174 games
TinyG.T.I
Tiny
Lycan
LycanXibbe
54% · 46 games50% · 127 games
InvokerJeezy
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
53% · 133 games55% · 147 games
Shadow DemonStoic
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
46% · 122 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
45% · 30 games
Game 2prediction correct36:12
AVULUS 80%Team Türkiye 20%
The model gave 80% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
46% · 157 games52% · 304 games
TimbersawG.T.I
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
47% · 75 games54% · 484 games
TinyJeezy
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
47% · 241 game51% · 24 games
AbaddonStoic
Abaddon
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
47% · 163 games
Lion
LionEkki
50% · 176 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 94%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2