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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 28 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 18 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
28%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
31%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Wein · 15 games
80%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
43%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 14 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 13 games
85%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 815 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
542 picks · 560 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
439 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
429 picks · 297 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1030 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 672 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 594 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 516 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
AVULUS 59%VP.Prodigy 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 50:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDarkLord^
47% · 492 games48% · 168 games
Kezcutie
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
54% · 586 games53% · 497 games
PuckSerenada
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackPalantimos
52% · 358 games53% · 525 games
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
45% · 258 games52% · 630 games
WarlockJANTER
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
50% · 827 games47% · 701 game
Tinyraregods
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed15:32
AVULUS 59%VP.Prodigy 41%
The model gave 59% on AVULUS — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
49% · 194 games46% · 117 games
Lunacutie
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
54% · 227 games54% · 460 games
Storm SpiritSerenada
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterPalantimos
52% · 126 games51% · 228 games
Underlordtakizawa
Underlord
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
50% · 466 games45% · 86 games
Bounty Hunterraregods
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
54% · 303 games45% · 425 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 64%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2