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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 37 games
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
50%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 26 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
46%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 22 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 18 games
39%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 13 games
77%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
465 picks · 459 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 569 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
326 picks · 148 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 583 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
279 picks · 517 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
269 picks · 490 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
267 picks · 151 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
264 picks · 568 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:31
AVULUS 55%Wildcard Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
51% · 92 games47% · 185 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Medusa
MedusaXibbe
46% · 102 games60% · 81 game
LifestealerYamSun
Lifestealer
Sand King
Sand KingMo13ei
52% · 159 games54% · 270 games
BristlebackFayde
Bristleback
Clockwerk
ClockwerkdEsire
50% · 270 games38% · 106 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFly
53% · 70 games50% · 51 game
SlarkBignum
Slark
Game 2prediction missed17:37
AVULUS 57%Wildcard Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 43:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
53% · 146 games39% · 95 games
Phantom AssassinYamSun
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawMo13ei
56% · 173 games58% · 91 game
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
KunkkaXibbe
51% · 120 games49% · 257 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
51% · 173 games48% · 172 games
WindrangerBignum
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
55% · 95 games41% · 92 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 61%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2