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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 41 game
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 25 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 22 games
59%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 17 games
65%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Warlock
Warlock
SoNNeikO · 17 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 16 games
38%

Wildcard Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
35%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 19 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 18 games
78%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
504 picks · 540 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 368 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 702 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
300 picks · 195 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
300 picks · 552 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:9
AVULUS 43%Wildcard Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by AVULUS in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
56% · 132 games42% · 204 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Lycan
LycanXibbe
62% · 50 games51% · 26 games
Chaos KnightYamSun
Chaos Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
54% · 109 games41% · 68 games
AxeFayde
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroFly
46% · 211 games52% · 94 games
MarciBignum
Marci
Bane
BanedEsire
56% · 66 games47% · 176 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct22:43
AVULUS 43%Wildcard Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 48:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
48% · 304 games45% · 218 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Lycan
LycanXibbe
62% · 68 games46% · 234 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
56% · 269 games50% · 139 games
AbaddonYamSun
Abaddon
Pugna
PugnaFly
51% · 135 games47% · 343 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
45% · 250 games54% · 92 games
BaneSpeeed
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2