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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 45 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 40 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 39 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 33 games
76%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 30 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 29 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 28 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 33 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
天命 · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 21 game
76%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 20 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 17 games
59%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
526 picks · 778 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
499 picks · 593 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
495 picks · 535 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
481 picks · 598 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 391 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
439 picks · 991 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 792 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
390 picks · 898 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:50
AVULUS 53%Yakult Brothers 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
52% · 313 games46% · 176 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierStormstormer
41% · 371 game47% · 292 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
53% · 198 games52% · 322 games
Magnuszeal
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
54% · 151 game52% · 360 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
53% · 296 games50% · 179 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed26:31
AVULUS 53%Yakult Brothers 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
49% · 118 games44% · 89 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
48% · 88 games56% · 58 games
Lycanzeal
Lycan
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
38% · 132 games48% · 222 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Tusk
TuskEkki
53% · 119 games55% · 25 games
VenomancerBoBoKa
Venomancer
Warlock
WarlockSoNNeikO
71% · 39 games51% · 102 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 55%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2