?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 51 game
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 22 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 21 game
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 19 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 19 games
42%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 10 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 625 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 428 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
394 picks · 832 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
367 picks · 554 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 322 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
359 picks · 827 bans
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
358 picks · 417 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:34
AVULUS 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
60% · 49 games47% · 91 game
Linabottega
Lina
Puck
PuckMo13ei
52% · 193 games51% · 108 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXibbe
51% · 65 games41% · 32 games
AxeInfernal
Axe
Rubick
RubickdEsire
48% · 111 games44% · 210 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Undying
UndyingFly
52% · 73 games53% · 50 games
Death ProphetXakoda
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction missed26:36
AVULUS 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 51:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
52% · 132 games49% · 81 game
Troll Warlordbottega
Troll Warlord
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMo13ei
61% · 83 games48% · 249 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
51% · 176 games51% · 116 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenFly
59% · 71 game48% · 50 games
Death ProphetXakoda
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskdEsire
46% · 267 games43% · 233 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 66%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2