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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 15 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
40%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
35%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
330 picks · 311 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 809 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
280 picks · 140 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
278 picks · 313 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 757 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
270 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
260 picks · 798 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
AVULUS 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 53%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1