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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 30 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 18 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 18 games
28%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Wein · 16 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 32 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 21 game
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 20 games
35%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
619 picks · 813 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
550 picks · 569 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
446 picks · 396 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
398 picks · 1038 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 677 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 594 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 513 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
AVULUS 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
48% · 258 games53% · 128 games
RazorShigetsu
Razor
Lifestealer
LifestealerDarkLord^
47% · 75 games59% · 100 games
ViperRain
Viper
Largo
LargoPalantimos
51% · 114 games54% · 372 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
41% · 160 games49% · 245 games
Marcinot me
Marci
Warlock
Warlockasdekor_r
49% · 316 games49% · 78 games
LionXakoda
Lion
Game 2prediction missed43:31
AVULUS 47%Yellow Submarine 53%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by AVULUS in 49:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
51% · 672 games51% · 289 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Muerta
MuertaDarkLord^
51% · 330 games48% · 272 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
52% · 532 games53% · 434 games
Void SpiritRain
Void Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixasdekor_r
47% · 325 games51% · 592 games
JakiroXakoda
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
50% · 328 games46% · 600 games
Tusknot me
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct13:37
AVULUS 48%Yellow Submarine 52%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDarkLord^
49% · 189 games44% · 370 games
WindrangerShigetsu
Windranger
Puck
Puckdualrazee
50% · 428 games46% · 304 games
AxeBatyuk
Axe
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
54% · 447 games49% · 591 game
TinyRain
Tiny
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
55% · 275 games52% · 295 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
51% · 796 games51% · 575 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 58%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3