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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Riki
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 9 games
56%

Bleed Esports

Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 17 games
35%
Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
77%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
44%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 9 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
667 picks · 695 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
662 picks · 456 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
580 picks · 1126 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1217 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
486 picks · 1039 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
475 picks · 443 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 722 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
436 picks · 908 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:33
Azure Ray 48%Bleed Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSomnus
50% · 234 games61% · 182 games
Naga SirenJaCkky
Naga Siren
Morphling
Morphlinglou
47% · 177 games47% · 105 games
Anti-Mageiceiceice
Anti-Mage
Axe
AxeChalice
41% · 27 games51% · 234 games
EnigmaDJ
Enigma
Pugna
Pugna天命
54% · 101 game53% · 394 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Rubick
Rubickfy
40% · 376 games
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Azure Ray 52%Bleed Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
55% · 133 games52% · 99 games
Naga SirenJaCkky
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckSomnus
54% · 201 game53% · 88 games
Underlordiceiceice
Underlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerChalice
57% · 111 games45% · 358 games
RubickDJ
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerfy
49% · 133 games40% · 174 games
Skywrath MageDuBu
Skywrath Mage
Pugna
Pugna天命
49% · 141 game
Game 3prediction correct25:18
Azure Ray 52%Bleed Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireSomnus
50% · 393 games49% · 320 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Slark
Slarklou
56% · 170 games50% · 154 games
Marsiceiceice
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterChalice
49% · 125 games45% · 285 games
EnchantressDJ
Enchantress
Techies
Techiesfy
50% · 244 games49% · 440 games
UndyingDuBu
Undying
Batrider
Batrider天命
52% · 267 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 52%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3