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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 33 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ori · 18 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
fy · 16 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 15 games
47%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
lou · 15 games
67%
Sven
Sven
lou · 15 games
20%

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
406 picks · 341 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 446 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
383 picks · 824 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 871 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
357 picks · 733 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 513 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
326 picks · 496 bans
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
293 picks · 673 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
Azure Ray 61%Evil Rabbit 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenlou
49% · 98 games51% · 189 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
52% · 188 games47% · 29 games
LycanIrving
Lycan
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinpLAnet
47% · 28 games56% · 177 games
WeaverQYQX
Weaver
Jakiro
JakiroFantasy
41% · 81 game
Game 2prediction correct31:22
Azure Ray 61%Evil Rabbit 39%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalou
40% · 81 game64% · 79 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
42% · 137 games53% · 228 games
PangolierIrving
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
49% · 142 games48% · 139 games
ClockwerkQYQX
Clockwerk
Jakiro
JakiroFantasy
50% · 86 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 75%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2