The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 1:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:0
EEExcel Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Elder Titan
xNova · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
JT- · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Pyw · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pyw · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Monet · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 1 game
Luna
Monet · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 1 game
Excel Esports
Tinyoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 5 games
Lina
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
RedPanda · 5 games
Silencer
RedPanda · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
生死 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
478 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
467 picks · 534 bans
Ringmaster
441 picks · 221 bans
Terrorblade
342 picks · 641 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 446 bans
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 659 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 219 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
Azure Ray 69%Excel Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMonet
Doomukiyo
Ember SpiritSomnus
Underlord生死
Dark SeerJT-
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Ancient ApparitionxNova
Nature's ProphetCatYou
Nyx AssassinPyw
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 84%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1