The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:2series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EEExcel Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Clockwerk
Pyw · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
JT- · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
xNova · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Monet · 2 games
Elder Titan
xNova · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Somnus · 2 games
Phoenix
xNova · 2 games
Excel Esports
Tinyoften banned
Manic · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
Silencer
RedPanda · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 5 games
Lina
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
522 picks · 601 bans
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
Jakiro
467 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
370 picks · 769 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 507 bans
Ancient Apparition
341 picks · 788 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 296 bans
Shadow Shaman
310 picks · 342 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Azure Ray 69%Excel Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMonet
Gyrocopterukiyo
Dragon KnightSomnus
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Centaur WarrunnerJT-
Pangolier生死
WindrangerPyw
RingmasterCatYou
ClockwerkxNova
JakiroRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Azure Ray 72%Excel Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMonet
Drow Rangerukiyo
KunkkaSomnus
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
BristlebackJT-
Void Spirit生死
Dark WillowPyw
Death ProphetRedPanda
Ancient ApparitionxNova
TuskCatYou
Game 3prediction missed14:21
Azure Ray 70%Excel Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Excel Esports in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMonet
Templar Assassinukiyo
KunkkaJT-
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
PangolierSomnus
Centaur Warrunner生死
WarlockxNova
Shadow ShamanCatYou
BatriderPyw
AbaddonRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 84%
Series resultExcel Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3