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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Geek Famloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
fy · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Faith_bian · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 16 games
94%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
77%

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 13 games
77%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jing · 6 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Natsumi · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Skem · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 307 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
331 picks · 510 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
323 picks · 301 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
271 picks · 370 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
252 picks · 457 bans
56%
Luna
Luna
249 picks · 228 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
243 picks · 157 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
242 picks · 304 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:20
Azure Ray 67%Geek Fam 33%
The model gave 67% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenlou
55% · 22 games46% · 103 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Huskar
HuskarOri
51% · 17 games53% · 83 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
52% · 118 games53% · 38 games
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Elder Titan
Elder Titan天命
56% · 70 games44% · 180 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Lion
Lionfy
48% · 177 games
Game 2prediction correct26:12
Azure Ray 64%Geek Fam 36%
The model gave 64% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOri
49% · 129 games53% · 136 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Slark
Slarklou
62% · 92 games44% · 120 games
WindrangerNatsumi
Windranger
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
51% · 50 games50% · 240 games
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Mirana
Mirana天命
55% · 129 games38% · 114 games
HoodwinkJing
Hoodwink
Tiny
Tinyfy
50% · 210 games
Game 3prediction correct20:17
Azure Ray 65%Geek Fam 35%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
56% · 59 games50% · 138 games
Faceless VoidNatsumi
Faceless Void
Abaddon
AbaddonFaith_bian
56% · 39 games49% · 176 games
PuckMac
Puck
Tiny
TinyOri
47% · 193 games50% · 177 games
Keeper of the LightSkem
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
Rubickfy
49% · 301 game46% · 191 game
LionJing
Lion
Mirana
Mirana天命
50% · 90 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 77%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3