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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
88%

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 9 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
shiro · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
NothingToSay · 7 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
niu · 6 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
niu · 6 games
83%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
shiro · 6 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 425 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
247 picks · 379 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
245 picks · 339 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
200 picks · 508 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
180 picks · 322 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total62% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:12
Azure Ray 58%LGD Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalou
44% · 55 games41% · 41 game
Clinkzshiro
Clinkz
Broodmother
BroodmotherFaith_bian
42% · 74 games50% · 108 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Mars
MarsOri
52% · 80 games49% · 106 games
Dark Seerniu
Dark Seer
Chen
Chen天命
50% · 52 games59% · 221 game
BatriderPyw
Batrider
Techies
Techiesfy
58% · 238 games34% · 23 games
Winter Wyverny`
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Azure Ray 57%LGD Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
51% · 58 games61% · 46 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Zeus
ZeusOri
47% · 60 games52% · 205 games
PangolierEmo
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
53% · 248 games49% · 76 games
Marsniu
Mars
Chen
Chen天命
50% · 76 games49% · 164 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Lion
Lionfy
42% · 114 games47% · 65 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 62%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2