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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:2
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 24 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
61%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 18 games
72%

nouns

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 20 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
85%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 20 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 17 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 15 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 607 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 531 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 156 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 305 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 703 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 544 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:27
Azure Ray 68%nouns 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by nouns in 28:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
53% · 253 games46% · 74 games
LinaCopy
Lina
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
51% · 74 games49% · 147 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracOri
55% · 146 games49% · 197 games
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
51% · 224 games44% · 243 games
TinyLelis
Tiny
Io
Io天命
50% · 79 games51% · 115 games
MiranaFly
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct22:5
Azure Ray 66%nouns 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
44% · 180 games51% · 162 games
TerrorbladeYuma
Terrorblade
Clinkz
Clinkzlou
49% · 32 games50% · 191 game
Primal BeastGunnar
Primal Beast
Slardar
SlardarOri
43% · 61 game57% · 131 game
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Techies
Techiesfy
47% · 300 games57% · 163 games
MiranaFly
Mirana
Clockwerk
Clockwerk天命
54% · 166 games48% · 92 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed22:46
Azure Ray 69%nouns 31%
The model gave 69% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by nouns in 1:34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlou
51% · 25 games52% · 175 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaOri
48% · 244 games51% · 212 games
TimbersawCopy
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tinyfy
48% · 327 games52% · 212 games
DoomGunnar
Doom
Lycan
LycanFaith_bian
56% · 68 games48% · 211 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Techies
Techies天命
48% · 384 games49% · 238 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 83%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3