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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
fy · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
天命 · 12 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
lou · 12 games
42%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
lou · 12 games
42%

Team Bright

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Tz. · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
17%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
TK · 3 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
TK · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
TK · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 458 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 264 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 446 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 474 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total83% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Azure Ray 83%Team Bright 17%
The model gave 83% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 21:34.
Game 2prediction correct11:2
Azure Ray 83%Team Bright 17%
The model gave 83% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 17:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 83%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2