DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Tinysignature
fy · 29 games
Lion
fy · 28 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
Lunaoften banned
lou · 21 game
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
fy · 19 games
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 47 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 37 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 30 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 217 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 638 bans
Batrider
417 picks · 725 bans
Centaur Warrunner
407 picks · 576 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 361 bans
Rubick
391 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 797 bans
Shadow Demon
342 picks · 954 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Azure Ray 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenlou
MorphlingPure~
RazorOri
Nature's ProphetTopson
BroodmotherFaith_bian
Dragon KnightRAMZES666
Enchantress天命
Shadow Demon9Class
Tinyfy
TechiesWhitemon
Game 2prediction missed35:26
Azure Ray 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
Nature's ProphetTopson
Storm SpiritOri
SlarkPure~
ViperFaith_bian
TidehunterRAMZES666
Venomancer天命
Monkey King9Class
Clockwerkfy
TechiesWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2