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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wawitas Sagazesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 12 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 8 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 7 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Chalice · 7 games
86%

Wawitas Sagazes

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 6 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
60%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 394 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
227 picks · 110 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
223 picks · 317 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 453 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
212 picks · 304 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
193 picks · 499 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
191 picks · 155 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
189 picks · 398 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Azure Ray 66%Wawitas Sagazes 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectrelou
64% · 70 games51% · 65 games
LunaLumière
Luna
Lina
LinaXm
51% · 100 games46% · 156 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
49% · 51 game50% · 110 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
WeaverXinQ
45% · 59 games47% · 70 games
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Ancient Apparition
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
47% · 121 game
Game 2prediction correct22:11
Azure Ray 65%Wawitas Sagazes 35%
The model gave 65% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidlou
56% · 17 games53% · 26 games
NecrophosDarkMago
Necrophos
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
50% · 30 games48% · 50 games
SpectreLumière
Spectre
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXm
57% · 47 games48% · 93 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
43% · 79 games51% · 70 games
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Ancient Apparition
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
51% · 66 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 76%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2