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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 27 games
63%
Lion
Lion
fy · 26 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
60%
Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 23 games
78%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 18 games
72%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 19 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
478 picks · 733 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 200 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 905 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 602 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
426 picks · 194 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
424 picks · 677 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
423 picks · 322 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
420 picks · 714 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Azure Ray 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
49% · 37 games51% · 79 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Sniper
SniperOri
51% · 20 games45% · 55 games
ZeusXm
Zeus
Underlord
UnderlordFaith_bian
43% · 21 game52% · 38 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Batrider
Batrider天命
50% · 116 games49% · 95 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Lion
Lionfy
49% · 118 games57% · 45 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct20:29
Azure Ray 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperOri
60% · 21 game47% · 120 games
Naga SirenAme
Naga Siren
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
60% · 96 games44% · 54 games
ZeusXm
Zeus
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
56% · 42 games39% · 93 games
Spirit BreakerXxs
Spirit Breaker
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterfy
53% · 90 games47% · 150 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Techies
Techies天命
51% · 239 games44% · 71 game
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2