Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CIS Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Linasignature
[T]SA · 26 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 12 games
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
304 picks · 443 bans
Monkey King
270 picks · 680 bans
Bane
269 picks · 202 bans
Tidehunter
265 picks · 406 bans
Weaver
246 picks · 503 bans
Snapfire
236 picks · 132 bans
Void Spirit
214 picks · 252 bans
Lina
212 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 78%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:25
B8 Esports 21%CIS Rejects 79%
The model gave 79% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 50:21.
Game 2prediction correct13:26
B8 Esports 21%CIS Rejects 79%
The model gave 79% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 26:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 79%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2