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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 20 games
55%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Davai · 11 games
45%
Luna
Lunasignature
Watson · 10 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Yuma · 10 games
20%

Creepwave

Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fishman · 11 games
82%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 10 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 9 games
22%
Io
Iooften banned
Chuvash · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
261 picks · 318 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 384 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
242 picks · 530 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 120 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
226 picks · 468 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
222 picks · 244 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
221 picks · 288 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
210 picks · 280 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total81% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
B8 Esports 32%Creepwave 68%
The model gave 68% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
48% · 45 games64% · 38 games
SlardarTobi
Slardar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
44% · 158 games54% · 51 game
WindrangerStormstormer
Windranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
55% · 73 games52% · 163 games
TidehunterCrystallis
Tidehunter
Weaver
Weavervelheor
43% · 81 game52% · 68 games
IoKataomi
Io
46% · 37 games
SilencerFishman
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 81%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1