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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Galactic Aliensloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 20 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 19 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 12 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 12 games
42%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 12 games
42%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 10 games
40%

Galactic Aliens

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Muka · 5 games
60%
Bane
Bane
HappyDyurara · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
33%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Munkushi~ · 3 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
HappyDyurara · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
HappyDyurara · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
348 picks · 178 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 407 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
260 picks · 355 bans
50%
Lina
Lina
258 picks · 519 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
236 picks · 331 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
227 picks · 236 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 469 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
B8 Esports 57%Galactic Aliens 43%
The model gave 57% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWatson
42% · 119 games52% · 101 game
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanLimitless
48% · 30 games63% · 51 game
Treant ProtectorHappyDyurara
Treant Protector
Sand King
Sand KingDendi
43% · 80 games55% · 184 games
LionMuka
Lion
Lina
Lina[T]SA
44% · 107 games
Game 2prediction missed33:48
B8 Esports 59%Galactic Aliens 41%
The model gave 59% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Galactic Aliens in 48:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWatson
53% · 74 games48% · 58 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerLimitless
50% · 11 games49% · 125 games
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
47% · 140 games51% · 87 games
Elder TitanHappyDyurara
Elder Titan
Io
Io[T]SA
53% · 45 games
Game 3prediction correct27:22
B8 Esports 57%Galactic Aliens 43%
The model gave 57% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWatson
49% · 51 game47% · 28 games
WeaverMunkushi~
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDendi
41% · 22 games49% · 87 games
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderLimitless
48% · 16 games61% · 26 games
BaneHappyDyurara
Bane
Lina
Lina[T]SA
53% · 52 games
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 65%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3