Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Rubick
illusion · 6 games
Enchantress
Duster · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 3 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
244 picks · 510 bans
Void Spirit
224 picks · 275 bans
Mars
205 picks · 377 bans
Earth Spirit
193 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
166 picks · 283 bans
Phoenix
161 picks · 187 bans
Nyx Assassin
160 picks · 512 bans
Wraith King
152 picks · 198 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:28
B8 Esports 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 45:00.
Game 2prediction missed27:19
B8 Esports 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 29:39.
Game 3prediction correct18:27
B8 Esports 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 42:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 61%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3