Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 10 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Limitless · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
Phantom Lancersignature
Watson · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Limitless · 7 games
Linaoften banned
[T]SA · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
393 picks · 174 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 129 bans
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 353 bans
Nyx Assassin
270 picks · 547 bans
Winter Wyvern
255 picks · 245 bans
Mars
254 picks · 405 bans
Lina
251 picks · 396 bans
Puck
245 picks · 552 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total70% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:15
B8 Esports 30%HellRaisers 70%
The model gave 70% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:36.
Game 2prediction missed30:13
B8 Esports 30%HellRaisers 70%
The model gave 70% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 30:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 70%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2