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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
58%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Dendi · 10 games
70%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 12 games
58%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Otaker · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
60%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 435 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
236 picks · 326 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
220 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
217 picks · 322 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
203 picks · 411 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
202 picks · 273 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
202 picks · 182 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
189 picks · 531 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:31
B8 Esports 49%KZ TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShad
57% · 104 games53% · 60 games
MedusaOtaker
Medusa
Puck
PuckDendi
50% · 207 games55% · 185 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonStoneBank
43% · 45 games46% · 83 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCTOMAHEH1
49% · 72 games43% · 102 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMary_y
52% · 142 games50% · 140 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct16:32
B8 Esports 50%KZ TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarShad
55% · 23 games53% · 65 games
UrsaOtaker
Ursa
Lina
LinaDendi
48% · 101 game58% · 94 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsStoneBank
48% · 57 games54% · 99 games
MagnusSkyLark
Magnus
Phoenix
PhoenixMary_y
41% · 151 game47% · 81 game
MuertaAstral
Muerta
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
45% · 34 games62% · 27 games
OracleSsaSpartan
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 50%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2