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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 10 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
43%

Natus Vincere Junior

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 11 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
20%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 335 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
241 picks · 116 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 478 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
213 picks · 297 bans
44%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
205 picks · 210 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
199 picks · 296 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 420 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 365 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:15
B8 Esports 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
50% · 128 games51% · 86 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaDendi
54% · 121 game50% · 4 games
Arc WardenNiku
Arc Warden
Night Stalker
Night StalkerStoneBank
65% · 27 games43% · 60 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenMary_y
56% · 41 game42% · 70 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
49% · 8 games45% · 105 games
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct27:16
B8 Esports 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
50% · 214 games49% · 97 games
Muertagotthejuice
Muerta
Wraith King
Wraith KingStoneBank
53% · 66 games45% · 276 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDendi
50% · 118 games48% · 130 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Pugna
PugnaCTOMAHEH1
52% · 163 games44% · 80 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMary_y
61% · 293 games47% · 271 game
TuskDaze
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 61%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2