?
arrow_backBack to match
The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 13 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
58%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
42%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 21 game
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 20 games
35%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 19 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 736 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
430 picks · 691 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
426 picks · 340 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 544 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
411 picks · 892 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 176 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 187 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% B8 Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total67% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:39
B8 Esports 40%Natus Vincere Junior 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 55:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrincyq
51% · 194 games41% · 23 games
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Kunkka
KunkkaDendi
52% · 95 games55% · 27 games
Night Stalkerpma
Night Stalker
Lycan
Lycanegxrdemxn
51% · 50 games50% · 188 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
55% · 23 games48% · 213 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorMary_y
50% · 150 games46% · 61 game
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction correct9:33
B8 Esports 39%Natus Vincere Junior 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
47% · 109 games54% · 34 games
Meepopma
Meepo
Zeus
ZeusDendi
48% · 47 games60% · 39 games
DazzleNiku
Dazzle
Brewmaster
Brewmasteregxrdemxn
47% · 69 games48% · 36 games
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Tiny
TinyCTOMAHEH1
51% · 164 games53% · 164 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMary_y
42% · 124 games52% · 240 games
Centaur WarrunnerDaze
Centaur Warrunner
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 67%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2