Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Snapfire
Alexxo · 16 games
Marcioften banned
Alexxo · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
Lunaoften banned
YamSun · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 7 games
Chen
Sammyboy · 6 games
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 6 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
Chen
Husky · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Moo · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Husky · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
371 picks · 348 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 336 bans
Rubick
272 picks · 201 bans
Mirana
269 picks · 264 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
185 picks · 106 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 504 bans
Ember Spirit
176 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:46
B8 Esports 32%nouns 68%
The model gave 68% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomFunn1k
Monkey KingYamSun
Chaos KnightStoneBank
TinyGunnar
Void SpiritDendi
BeastmasterMoo
HoodwinkMoOz
SnapfireLelis
Crystal MaidenLodine
MiranaHusky
Game 2prediction correct17:33
B8 Esports 33%nouns 67%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerStoneBank
Nature's ProphetYamSun
PangolierFunn1k
Storm SpiritGunnar
PudgeDendi
TimbersawMoo
RubickMoOz
RikiLelis
GrimstrokeLodine
MiranaHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 80%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2