Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 1:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PPOMO1KAloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Snapfire
Alexxo · 20 games
Bane
Sammyboy · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
Ogre Magi
Sammyboy · 11 games
Mirana
Alexxo · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
Davai · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
POMO1KA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
451 picks · 479 bans
Bane
449 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 571 bans
Dragon Knight
376 picks · 436 bans
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 623 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 799 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% POMO1KA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% POMO1KA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:1
B8 Esports 32%POMO1KA 68%
The model gave 68% on POMO1KA — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 15:23.
Model check result
Model favoritePOMO1KA · 68%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1