European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team_Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Rubicksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 7 games
Techies
Lodine · 7 games
Team_Team
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 2 games
Tusk
EcNart · 2 games
Axe
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
258 picks · 308 bans
Dark Willow
250 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 235 bans
Treant Protector
216 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
205 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
204 picks · 280 bans
Nature's Prophet
185 picks · 457 bans
Muerta
183 picks · 244 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:38
B8 Esports 56%Team_Team 44%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Team_Team in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLowskill
Death ProphetMoonlight
KunkkaDendi
SpectreCrystallize
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Nature's ProphetEcNart
MuertaCTOMAHEH1
TidehunterInfernal
Elder TitanMary_y
Game 2prediction correct27:19
B8 Esports 58%Team_Team 42%
The model gave 58% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenLowskill
Chaos KnightCrystallize
Night StalkerStoneBank
Death ProphetMoonlight
KunkkaDendi
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Nature's ProphetMary_y
WarlockEcNart
MuertaCTOMAHEH1
Game 3prediction missed20:33
B8 Esports 55%Team_Team 45%
The model gave 55% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Team_Team in 48:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverLowskill
SpectreCrystallize
Spirit BreakerStoneBank
LycanInfernal
EarthshakerDendi
ZeusMoonlight
UndyingMary_y
Treant ProtectorEcNart
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 61%
Series resultTeam_Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3