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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
27%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 9 games
22%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
86%

Wildcard Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lil_Nick · 9 games
11%
Techies
Techiessignature
FrancisLee · 9 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
RCY · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
RCY · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
566 picks · 606 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
463 picks · 238 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 794 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
376 picks · 699 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
370 picks · 377 bans
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
344 picks · 833 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
339 picks · 725 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 728 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total75% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:34
B8 Esports 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 48:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaV-Tune
62% · 136 games50% · 165 games
DoomSunlight
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDendi
48% · 128 games46% · 183 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderStoneBank
47% · 98 games49% · 87 games
Templar AssassinSammyboy
Templar Assassin
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
48% · 185 games57% · 49 games
Nature's ProphetHusky
Nature's Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKidaro
37% · 30 games53% · 93 games
TuskTaiga
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct15:22
B8 Esports 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterV-Tune
46% · 36 gameslittle data
TinkerRCY
Tinker
Windranger
WindrangerDendi
50% · 67 gameslittle data
HuskarSammyboy
Huskar
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
57% · 10 games50% · 42 games
UnderlordSunlight
Underlord
Lion
LionCTOMAHEH1
52% · 71 game50% · 178 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Io
IoKidaro
49% · 81 game49% · 45 games
MarciHusky
Marci
Game 3prediction missed35:11
B8 Esports 37%Wildcard Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerV-Tune
49% · 116 games55% · 148 games
UrsaSammyboy
Ursa
Night Stalker
Night StalkerStoneBank
55% · 29 games57% · 50 games
RazorSunlight
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDendi
45% · 244 games52% · 386 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickCTOMAHEH1
49% · 497 games46% · 181 game
MarciTaiga
Marci
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKidaro
40% · 16 games52% · 137 games
PhoenixHusky
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 75%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3