European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 13 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 21 game
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 16 games
Techies
rue · 16 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 13 games
Luna
Satanic · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Satanic · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 791 bans
Batrider
465 picks · 956 bans
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 203 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 610 bans
Techies
450 picks · 345 bans
Mars
444 picks · 701 bans
Rubick
442 picks · 204 bans
Pangolier
431 picks · 735 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:13
B8 Esports 36%Yellow Submarine 64%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marciegxrdemxn
LifestealerSatanic
DazzleDendi
Pangoliererase
Pudgerincyq
Dragon Knightemptiness
BaneCTOMAHEH1
Techiesrue
IoMary_y
Grimstrokeasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct12:31
B8 Esports 35%Yellow Submarine 65%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycanegxrdemxn
SlarkSatanic
Morphlingrincyq
Zeuserase
PudgeDendi
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
Rubickrue
BaneMary_y
Disruptorasdekor_r
Game 3prediction correct17:37
B8 Esports 37%Yellow Submarine 63%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleDendi
LunaSatanic
Slarkrincyq
Zeuserase
Pudgeegxrdemxn
Razoremptiness
BatriderCTOMAHEH1
Enchantressasdekor_r
BaneMary_y
Tuskrue
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 76%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3