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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Backstreetboyswin 2:1
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Backstreetboys

No games played over 6 months.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 27 games
59%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 24 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 21 game
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
788 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
582 picks · 301 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
580 picks · 578 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
499 picks · 586 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
499 picks · 345 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 272 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
479 picks · 756 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1116 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:18
Backstreetboys 22%HULIGANI 78%
The model gave 78% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonpaw
52% · 262 games51% · 56 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Axe
AxeStoneBank
41% · 135 games54% · 159 games
DoomBb3px
Doom
Windranger
Windrangerarmageddon
54% · 174 games50% · 227 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorStoic
51% · 234 games47% · 50 games
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Skywrath Mage
50% · 313 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed33:25
Backstreetboys 21%HULIGANI 79%
The model gave 79% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Backstreetboys in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursapaw
49% · 251 game54% · 62 games
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
54% · 186 games47% · 161 game
MarsBb3px
Mars
Muerta
Muertaarmageddon
47% · 229 games49% · 191 game
Monkey Kingerase
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
49% · 215 games51% · 171 game
Disruptorslimeyao
Disruptor
51% · 296 games
TuskRESPECT
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed36:11
Backstreetboys 21%HULIGANI 79%
The model gave 79% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Backstreetboys in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepaw
47% · 128 games58% · 47 games
Huskarerase
Huskar
Doom
DoomStoneBank
51% · 78 games49% · 170 games
Marciv1olent-
Marci
Windranger
Windrangerarmageddon
42% · 90 games52% · 192 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Tusk
TuskStoic
47% · 239 games49% · 40 games
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
Spirit Breaker
58% · 86 games
DazzleRESPECT
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 93%
Series resultBackstreetboys 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3