European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs predictionBBackstreetboysloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Backstreetboys
Windranger
armageddon · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
paw · 1 game
Axe
StoneBank · 1 game
Clockwerk
Stoic · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
Stoic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Muerta
armageddon · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
Chensignature
Rein · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 14 games
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
773 picks · 359 bans
Hoodwink
579 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 561 bans
Jakiro
521 picks · 367 bans
Dragon Knight
503 picks · 610 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 282 bans
Mars
469 picks · 749 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
Backstreetboys 32%Most Wanted 68%
The model gave 68% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 26:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightpaw
Storm Spiritniche
MarsStoneBank
Monkey King423
Windrangerarmageddon
UndyingfortniteMan
SnapfireStoic
DisruptorPonlo
Game 2prediction correct13:35
Backstreetboys 31%Most Wanted 69%
The model gave 69% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingpaw
Huskarniche
TidehunterStoneBank
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Muertaarmageddon
Monkey King423
TuskStoic
Shadow DemonPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 82%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2