European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs predictionBBackstreetboysloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Backstreetboys
Windranger
armageddon · 3 games
Muerta
armageddon · 2 games
Tusk
Stoic · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
paw · 1 game
Axe
StoneBank · 1 game
Clockwerk
Stoic · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
Stoic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
VP.Prodigy
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
Snapfire
armageddon · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 5 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 3 games
Marcioften banned
egx · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
768 picks · 354 bans
Hoodwink
576 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 555 bans
Jakiro
527 picks · 376 bans
Dragon Knight
507 picks · 613 bans
Tusk
482 picks · 285 bans
Mars
465 picks · 743 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Backstreetboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Backstreetboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:35
Backstreetboys 53%VP.Prodigy 47%
The model gave 53% on Backstreetboys — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursapaw
Keeper of the LightSerenada
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Axetakizawa
Muertaarmageddon
Dragon Knightcutie
TuskStoic
Windrangerraregods
49% · 258 games
DisruptorJANTER
Game 2prediction missed22:36
Backstreetboys 50%VP.Prodigy 50%
The model gave 50% on Backstreetboys — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladepaw
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
AxeStoneBank
Abaddoncutie
DisruptorStoic
Ember SpiritSerenada
Skywrath Magearmageddon
Grimstrokeraregods
56% · 118 games
EnchantressJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteBackstreetboys · 52%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2