ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBadRexonwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Covenantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BadRexon
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
428 picks · 348 bans
Clockwerk
407 picks · 539 bans
Lion
360 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 452 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 580 bans
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 544 bans
Phoenix
335 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% BadRexon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% BadRexon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:22
BadRexon 54%The Covenant 46%
The model gave 54% on BadRexon — the game was taken by BadRexon in 31:58.
Game 2prediction correct
BadRexon 54%The Covenant 46%
The model gave 54% on BadRexon — the game was taken by BadRexon.
Model check result
Model favoriteBadRexon · 54%
Series resultBadRexon 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2