PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Balaclavaswin 1:0series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balaclavas
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Pipsqueak+4
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 13 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 13 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 10 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
Batridersignature
Kaori · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
383 picks · 347 bans
Puck
340 picks · 860 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
282 picks · 126 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
273 picks · 684 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 69%
Hero pool strength63% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Balaclavas 17%Pipsqueak+4 83%
The model gave 83% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Balaclavas.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 83%
Series resultBalaclavas 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1