Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Bald Dynastywin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FFireBloomloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bald Dynasty
Anti-Mageoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
FireBloom
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
767 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 456 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 379 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 981 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 924 bans
Undying
396 picks · 596 bans
Nature's Prophet
394 picks · 670 bans
Doom
389 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% FireBloom
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% FireBloom
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:24
Bald Dynasty 49%FireBloom 51%
The model gave 51% on FireBloom — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 36:35.
Game 2prediction missed34:12
Bald Dynasty 49%FireBloom 51%
The model gave 51% on FireBloom — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 24:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteFireBloom · 51%
Series resultBald Dynasty 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2