FONBET Кубок России 2024 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bald Dynastywin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NNoImproveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bald Dynasty
No games played over 6 months.
NoImprove
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
441 picks · 374 bans
Hoodwink
394 picks · 448 bans
Weaver
387 picks · 822 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 869 bans
Phoenix
368 picks · 763 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 515 bans
Clockwerk
339 picks · 505 bans
Jakiro
334 picks · 252 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Bald Dynasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Bald Dynasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
Bald Dynasty 63%NoImprove 37%
The model gave 63% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 28:17.
Game 2prediction missed26:47
Bald Dynasty 63%NoImprove 37%
The model gave 63% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by NoImprove in 43:31.
Game 3prediction correct34:15
Bald Dynasty 63%NoImprove 37%
The model gave 63% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 22:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteBald Dynasty · 63%
Series resultBald Dynasty 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3