Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CECoritiba E-Sportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Coritiba E-Sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 647 bans
Tiny
460 picks · 437 bans
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 560 bans
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 483 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 650 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 294 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:31
Balrogs 60%Coritiba E-Sports 40%
The model gave 60% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Coritiba E-Sports in 51:04.
Game 2prediction missed31:31
Balrogs 60%Coritiba E-Sports 40%
The model gave 60% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Coritiba E-Sports in 46:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 60%
Series resultCoritiba E-Sports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2