Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dreamerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
498 picks · 444 bans
Mars
489 picks · 688 bans
Bane
464 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 519 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 563 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 646 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Dreamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:5
Balrogs 45%Dreamers 55%
The model gave 55% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 26:44.
Game 2prediction correct12:34
Balrogs 45%Dreamers 55%
The model gave 55% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 29:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteDreamers · 55%
Series resultDreamers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2