Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 12 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 11 games
Marssignature
Frank · 10 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
ArzenT · 7 games
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
MoOz · 7 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
543 picks · 458 bans
Mars
439 picks · 684 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
Bane
394 picks · 280 bans
Puck
352 picks · 809 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 578 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 626 bans
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:27
Balrogs 46%Mad Kings 54%
The model gave 54% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 54:28.
Game 2prediction correct27:23
Balrogs 46%Mad Kings 54%
The model gave 54% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 32:53.
Game 3prediction correct27:44
Balrogs 46%Mad Kings 54%
The model gave 54% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 38:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 54%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3