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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mad Kingsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 7 games
86%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
83%
Silencer
Silencersignature
ShakaLord · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Demon · 5 games
80%

Mad Kings

Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Gardick · 10 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
683 picks · 434 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
585 picks · 540 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 443 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
488 picks · 548 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
392 picks · 382 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
382 picks · 213 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 537 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
345 picks · 501 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:39
Balrogs 50%Mad Kings 50%
The model gave 50% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidDM
68% · 15 games48% · 59 games
Night StalkerArzenT
Night Stalker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
56% · 12 games
Death Prophet
Death Prophetdrakesh1t
47% · 15 games
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDemon
50% · 4 games
Snapfire
SnapfireShakaLord
35% · 13 games
Game 2prediction missed
Balrogs 49%Mad Kings 51%
The model gave 51% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Balrogs.
Game 3prediction missed
Balrogs 49%Mad Kings 51%
The model gave 51% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Balrogs.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 51%
Series resultBalrogs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3