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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Limits Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 9 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
ShakaLord · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Demon · 7 games
29%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
ShakaLord · 7 games
57%

No Limits Gaming

Doom
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zxca · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
JP · 3 games
100%
Silencer
Silencer
CHAAANNN · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 3 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JP · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
984 picks · 665 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 484 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 943 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 440 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 523 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
524 picks · 353 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
509 picks · 1121 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
484 picks · 358 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% No Limits Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:6
Balrogs 48%No Limits Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Balrogs in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingDM
56% · 78 games42% · 352 games
Ember SpiritAlone
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
52% · 449 games49% · 129 games
Drow RangerJP
Drow Ranger
Tusk
TuskDemon
52% · 509 games49% · 321 game
Snapfiredrakesh1t
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenShakaLord
46% · 286 games53% · 304 games
ClockwerkZxca
Clockwerk
50% · 216 games
DisruptorCHAAANNN
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed43:19
Balrogs 49%No Limits Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Balrogs in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDM
53% · 192 games45% · 88 games
AlchemistJP
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
55% · 184 games57% · 300 games
PuckAlone
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireDemon
50% · 388 games48% · 341 game
Tuskdrakesh1t
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShakaLord
52% · 372 games40% · 244 games
HoodwinkZxca
Hoodwink
46% · 163 games
SilencerCHAAANNN
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Limits Gaming · 53%
Series resultBalrogs 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2