Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Balrogsloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Our Waywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Our Way
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 383 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 386 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 613 bans
Bane
238 picks · 172 bans
Lina
218 picks · 464 bans
Lion
213 picks · 102 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 261 bans
Weaver
209 picks · 388 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Our Way
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Balrogs 38%Our Way 62%
The model gave 62% on Our Way — the game was taken by Balrogs.
Game 2prediction correct
Balrogs 38%Our Way 62%
The model gave 62% on Our Way — the game was taken by Our Way.
Game 3prediction correct
Balrogs 38%Our Way 62%
The model gave 62% on Our Way — the game was taken by Our Way.
Model check result
Model favoriteOur Way · 62%
Series resultOur Way 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3